OpenAI vs Anthropic: the IPO race.

Why Anthropic is going first

Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 in June, the same month as OpenAI, but pushed ahead with a public filing.[TechCrunch] It's selling 825M Class A shares to raise up to $64.35B, plus a $26B private placement to AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC at the IPO price.[TechCrunch]

Its target was trimmed from a rumored $2T to ~$1.03T on basic shares (~$1.4T fully diluted).[Axios] That cut is a signal: public investors are pricing AI more cautiously than private rounds.

What it means for OpenAI investors

• Price discovery: ANT's first months will set the multiple the market is willing to pay for a frontier lab.
• Competition for capital: both labs tap the same investors; OpenAI raced to close its round before Anthropic listed.[Reuters]
• Template for retail: Anthropic's ~20% retail allocation raises expectations for OpenAI.
• Governance: both are public benefit corporations where public buyers get limited control.

Bottom line

If you want frontier-AI stock this year, Anthropic is the only option. OpenAI likely offers a bigger consumer brand and larger revenue base, but you'll wait until 2027 — and its price will partly depend on how ANT trades.